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Is my HVAC quote fair?

The contractor is the only person in the room who knows what the number should be, and he is also the one being paid. Put the price in and we will tell you where it sits against your region, and whether the equipment is even the right size for your house.

Check the size before you argue about the price

1,431 square feet per ton, the average of forty real load calculations
400–600 square feet per ton, the rule of thumb a quote is usually built on
2 to 3× the equipment those calculations actually asked for

Writing on ACCA’s HVAC blog, engineer Allison Bailes published forty load calculations from his own practice. The lowest came in at 624 square feet per ton. His summary: “if you tell me your load calculations average 400-600 square feet per ton, I assume you’re not doing them correctly.” One engineer’s forty jobs is not an industry census, and we are not going to pretend it is. It is still a reason to ask for the calculation rather than accept the shortcut. Source

An oversized system cools fast, shuts off, and never runs long enough to pull the humidity out. The house feels clammy, the equipment wears out early, and you paid more up front for both. The year the house went up matters more than its floor area: the same 2,000 square feet calculates near 4 tons if it was built in 1968 and near 1.5 tons if it was built in 2015.

Start with the number on the quote

Two boxes gets you a read. Add more only if you want it sharper. Nothing is uploaded or stored.

⚠ Any of these happening? (safety, check all that apply)

What you get back

$8,900 typical for your scope $16,400 your quote $19,750

An example, not your quote. We work out the typical installed-cost range for your exact scope, adjusted to your local price level, and show where your number sits against it. A quote inside the range isn't automatically the best price. A quote above it isn't automatically a rip-off. It tells you when it's worth asking harder questions.

What people usually do instead

Get three quotes

Good advice, and it takes two weeks of appointments. Useful when the furnace still works. Less useful in February when it doesn't.

Ask the contractor if it's fair

They'll say yes, and they might well be right. They are also the one being paid. That's a reason to check the number, not to distrust them.

Look up a national average

National averages ignore that the same 2,000 sq ft house needs different equipment in Minnesota and Texas, and that labour costs differ by 40% between metros. We adjust for both.

How to tell if your HVAC quote is fair

When a contractor hands you a number for a new furnace, air conditioner, or heat pump, it’s almost impossible to know in the moment whether it’s reasonable. This free tool gives you a fast, honest starting point, not a quote, just a sanity check built from published 2024–2025 U.S. installed-cost ranges and standard HVAC sizing rules.

1. Price: is it in the typical range?

We estimate a typical range for your exact scope, system type, size, efficiency, and local price level, and show where your quote falls. A quote inside the range isn’t automatically the best price (always get 2–3 quotes), and a quote above it isn’t automatically a rip-off. The range just tells you when it’s worth asking harder questions.

The geographic adjustment uses BEA Regional Price Parities (all items, 2022), public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data that measure each metro area’s price level versus the national average, with an honest fall-back to your state when a ZIP isn’t inside a covered metro. That’s why a high-cost metro and a low-cost town in the same state get different ranges, instead of one blunt regional number. Source: bea.gov. Regional Price Parities.

2. Sizing: is the equipment right for your home?

The single most common hidden problem in a residential HVAC quote is oversizing. A too-big AC cools fast, shuts off, and never runs long enough to pull humidity out of the air, so the house feels clammy and the equipment wears out early. Correct sizing comes from an ACCA Manual J load calculation, not “we’ll match your old unit” or “square footage divided by a number.” Our tool checks the tonnage against your home. Give it a ZIP and the year the home was built and it runs an actual block load, floor area, construction era, storeys and your local design temperature, and compares the quote against that, instead of dividing square footage by a number. The year matters more than you would expect: the same 2,000 sq ft house calculates near 4 tons if it went up in 1968 and near 1.5 tons if it went up in 2015. A block load is still not a Manual J, which measures room by room, but it's enough to see a system that's two sizes too big.

How far off is the shortcut? Writing on ACCA’s HVAC blog, engineer Allison Bailes published forty real load calculations from his own practice: the lowest came in at 624 sq ft per ton and the average was 1,431. against a rule of thumb of one ton per 400 to 600 sq ft. That points at roughly two to three times the equipment the calculations actually asked for. His own summary: “if you tell me your load calculations average 400-600 square feet per ton, I assume you’re not doing them correctly.” One engineer’s forty jobs falls well short of an industry census. but it is a reason to ask for the calculation instead of accepting the shortcut. Source

3. Efficiency: are you paying for the tier you’re getting?

SEER2 rates cooling efficiency; AFUE rates furnace efficiency. Higher numbers mean lower running costs but a higher price up front. There’s nothing wrong with a baseline-efficiency unit, it’s often the best value, but you should know which tier you’re buying so you can decide if a premium is worth it for how long you’ll stay in the home.

4. Safety always comes first

If you smell gas, your carbon-monoxide alarm sounds, or a contractor says your heat exchanger is cracked, that's a safety issue, and it stops being a price negotiation. Handle it on its own timeline, and never let a genuine safety concern be used to rush you into a same-day purchase. Real emergencies survive a second opinion.

What’s a fair price for HVAC replacement? (general 2024–2025 ranges)

  • Central AC only (condenser + coil): roughly $5,000–$9,000 installed.
  • Gas furnace only: roughly $4,000–$8,000 installed.
  • Complete system (AC + gas furnace): roughly $8,000–$16,000.
  • Heat pump system (heat + cool): roughly $9,000–$18,000.

These are broad national ballparks to orient you, not quotes. Equipment is usually only 30–45% of the total, the rest is labor, materials, permits, and overhead. Your real number depends on your home, your region, the efficiency tier, and the day.

Common questions

Is my HVAC quote too high?

Compare it to the typical range for the same system, size, and efficiency in your area, and confirm the equipment is correctly sized. A quote well above the range is the strongest reason to get 2–3 written, itemized quotes, not proof anything is wrong, but a signal to dig in.

Why is my furnace/AC quote so much higher than my neighbor’s?

Efficiency tier, equipment brand and staging (single vs. variable speed), ductwork condition, home access, warranty length, and permits all move the price. Ask for an itemized quote so you can see what is different underneath the bottom line.

How do I know if my new AC is the right size?

Ask for the ACCA Manual J load calculation, that's the real answer, and a contractor who can't produce one sized your system by guessing. The tool above will run a block load for you if you enter your ZIP, square footage and the year the home was built, and compare a quoted size against it. Bigger isn't better: an oversized system short-cycles, never runs long enough to pull humidity out of the air, and wears out early.

What size AC do I need for my house?

It depends far more on when the house was built than on how big it's. A 2,000 sq ft home near Washington DC calculates at about 4 tons if it went up in 1968 and about 1.5 tons if it went up in 2015, same square footage, roughly a 2.7× difference, because insulation and air sealing carry most of the load. That's why “square footage divided by 500” gets sizing wrong so often. Enter your ZIP, square footage and year built in the tool above and it will calculate your load; you don't need a quote in hand.

How many tons of AC per square foot?

The old rule is 400–600 sq ft per ton in hot climates and 500–900 in mixed ones, and it is a starting point, not an answer. It cannot see insulation, air sealing, window area or duct location, which together matter more than floor area. Use it to sanity-check a number, never to specify equipment. The tool above runs an actual block load instead once it knows the year the home was built.

Should I repair or replace my system?

Younger systems (under ~10 years) with a bounded, first-time failure usually favor repair. Older systems (15+ years) with a major failure, compressor or heat exchanger, or a repair cost approaching 30–50% of replacement usually favor replacement. Use the repair-or-replace option in the tool above.

Important: This tool is independent consumer education to help you understand and compare HVAC quotes. It's a general sanity check, not a quote, not regulated price advice, not a guarantee of any price or savings, and not a representation of any specific contractor or company. All numbers are general ranges that vary by home, region, equipment, and time. Always hire licensed, insured contractors, follow local code and permit rules, and treat any safety concern (gas, carbon monoxide, cracked heat exchanger) as an immediate safety matter. If you smell gas or a CO alarm sounds, leave and call 911 or your gas utility’s emergency line.